Узбекистан формирует новую финансовую архитектуру Центральной Азии: какие изменения уже произошли и что это означает для региона
Uzbekistan's banking system is gradually moving beyond serving the domestic market. Growth in international trade, increasing cross-border financial flows, and the development of digital payments are creating demand for financial infrastructure capable of connecting the country with neighboring economies.
However, Uzbekistan's transformation into an independent financial hub in Central Asia remains an objective rather than an accomplished fact.
By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover reached $81.2 billion, an increase of 20.7% compared with the previous year. Exports amounted to $33.8 billion, while imports totaled $47.4 billion. The country maintained trade relations with 210 countries, with China, Russia, and Kazakhstan remaining its largest trading partners.
These figures, published by the National Statistics Committee on January 22, 2026, demonstrate the scale of the country's international economic ties. At the same time, they raise an important question: how prepared is the national financial system to handle growing flows of goods, capital, and payments?
For businesses, this question has very practical implications. When entering into a foreign trade contract, the price of goods is not the only consideration. Companies also need to understand how long an international settlement will take, which currency will be used, how many intermediaries will be involved, and what requirements banks will impose.
The ability to address these challenges will determine whether Uzbekistan can become a significant component of Central Asia's financial infrastructure.
From Domestic Banking Reform to International Settlements
Uzbekistan's changing position is primarily linked to the transformation of its own economy.
According to an assessment by the International Monetary Fund dated June 18, 2026, the country's real GDP grew by 7.7% in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, growth reached 8.7% year-on-year. At the same time, the IMF projected a slowdown in annual growth to 6.8% in 2026, emphasizing the need to contain inflationary pressures and continue structural reforms.
Economic growth is accompanied by increasing demand for banking services. Expanding production, equipment imports, product exports, and the activities of international companies require working capital financing, foreign exchange operations, and settlements with overseas counterparties.
The banking system is responding to these developments, although its structure still differs significantly from systems dominated by private capital.
According to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, as of August 1, 2026, the total assets of commercial banks reached UZS 1,016.6 trillion, compared with UZS 852.4 trillion a year earlier. This represents nominal growth of approximately 19.3%.
Over the same period, deposits increased from UZS 360.4 trillion to UZS 482.7 trillion, or approximately 33.9%.
The growth of the deposit base is important not only for domestic lending. It also expands banks' capacity to attract and allocate resources, develop settlement products, and serve companies operating in international markets.
However, an increase in assets and deposits does not, by itself, demonstrate improvements in the efficiency of international settlements.
International Payments: From Infrastructure Access to System Interoperability
One of the major developments in recent years has been the expansion of opportunities to use digital financial instruments beyond national borders.
However, international settlements are not a uniform category. Corporate payments, personal remittances, and payments for purchases abroad operate through different mechanisms.
International corporate settlements often require the involvement of correspondent banks — financial institutions through which banks in different countries process payments on each other's behalf.
In this context, the technical ability to transfer funds is only one consideration. Access to the required currency, transaction participant verification, and banking service conditions are equally important.
A transition toward settlements in national currencies can potentially reduce the number of currency conversions. However, savings are not automatic: they depend on the liquidity of the relevant currency pairs, exchange rate spreads, fees, and the availability of intermediary banks.
Therefore, growing trade between Uzbekistan and China, Russia, and Kazakhstan should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that international settlements have become less expensive.
Changes are more visible in the retail segment.
According to a Central Bank review dated August 14, 2026, Uzbekistan received $9.3 billion in cross-border personal remittances during January–June, representing a 13% increase compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
Of this amount, $4.8 billion, or 51.7%, was transferred directly to bank cards through peer-to-peer (P2P) channels. The volume of such transactions increased by 32% year-on-year.
This indicates a shift in the channels through which money enters the country. Remittances are increasingly becoming part of everyday digital banking rather than a separate cash collection transaction.
Nevertheless, the digitalization of payment channels does not mean that every international transfer has become cheaper. The final cost still depends on service fees, exchange rates, and the conditions of the payment system.
Banks Are Moving From Individual Services to International Platforms
Several distinct models of participation in international financial infrastructure can be identified within Uzbekistan's banking sector.
The first involves connecting digital banking products to international payment systems.
Octobank, one of Uzbekistan's rapidly growing private banks, provides an illustrative example.
According to the bank's results published on February 11, 2026, its total assets reached UZS 12.2 trillion at the end of 2025, while customer deposits amounted to UZS 10.84 trillion.
The bank reported asset growth of 314% and deposit growth of 515% compared with 2024.
In October 2025, Octobank announced the integration of Alipay+ into its Octo-Mobile application.
Through a connection using HUMO infrastructure, customers gained the ability to pay for purchases abroad using QR codes with automatic currency conversion.
For the financial market, the significance of such integration extends beyond a single mobile application.
A national banking product gains access to an international payment acceptance network without having to build its own infrastructure in every country.
At the same time, this solution primarily concerns retail payments rather than a comprehensive mechanism for international business-to-business settlements.
As Octobank's press service previously noted, the service is intended, among others, for customers who travel, work, or study abroad.
The second model involves the development of international trade finance.
An illustrative example is Asakabank's cooperation with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
The bank joined the Trade Facilitation Programme, under which the EBRD provided a limit of up to $20 million to support export and import transactions.
The program provides guarantees to international confirming banks, helping reduce certain payment risks associated with foreign trade transactions.
This is an example of an established institutional model, although Asakabank originally joined the program in 2019.
In the EBRD's 2025 awards, Asakabank was recognized as Uzbekistan's Most Active Issuing Bank under the program.
The third model involves connecting domestic banks to international trade risk-sharing mechanisms.
Through its Trade and Supply Chain Finance Program, the Asian Development Bank provides guarantees and financing via a network of partner financial institutions.
The list of participating banks published as of October 23, 2026, includes several institutions from Uzbekistan, notably Ipak Yuli Bank, Asakabank, Uzpromstroybank, and Davr Bank.
For businesses, these mechanisms may be just as important as mobile payments.
They enable banks to participate in financing international trade using instruments provided by multilateral development institutions.
However, participation in such a program does not automatically disclose the actual volume of transactions financed by an individual bank.
Thus, the development of international financial infrastructure is progressing simultaneously along several paths: retail payment integrations, correspondent banking relationships, and trade finance instruments.
Digital Infrastructure Becomes a National Strategic Priority
In September 2026, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan presented its national financial technology development strategy for 2026–2030.
The strategy provides for the modernization of digital financial infrastructure, improved interoperability between payment systems, expanded international cooperation, consumer protection, and stronger cybersecurity.
The regulator has set a goal of positioning Uzbekistan as a regional fintech hub by the end of 2030.
This is an important indication of national priorities, but it remains a strategic objective rather than confirmation of regional leadership already achieved.
In August, the Central Bank also held discussions with Tencent regarding the potential integration of Uzbekistan's national QR payment infrastructure with foreign payment ecosystems.
The parties agreed to continue technical discussions and prepare a roadmap.
Cooperation with Ant Group in the field of cross-border payments was also discussed separately.
Such initiatives could be important for tourism, e-commerce, and services for international customers.
However, they should not yet be regarded as operational payment corridors. Public statements from the regulator confirm negotiations and intentions rather than the launch of the corresponding services.
Assessing their actual impact will require monitoring the number of connected participants, geographical coverage, transaction volumes, and payment costs.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan: Competition Between Two Financial Models
Uzbekistan's regional ambitions must be assessed in the context of Kazakhstan's position, as Kazakhstan has a larger economy and a more developed financial market.
According to World Bank data for 2025, Kazakhstan's nominal GDP amounted to $306.2 billion, compared with $147 billion for Uzbekistan and $22.6 billion for Kyrgyzstan.
At the same time, Uzbekistan's economy grew faster than Kazakhstan's, with growth rates of 7.7% and 6.5%, respectively.
The difference in economic scale means that it would be premature for Uzbekistan to claim the position of the region's leading financial center.
According to Bruno S. Sergi, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Messina in Italy and a lecturer at Harvard University in the United States, the development of Central Asia's financial infrastructure should be assessed not only in terms of the size of national economies but also by the ability of banking systems to support international economic relations.
“The future financial architecture of Central Asia does not necessarily depend on the emergence of a single dominant center. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan can develop as complementary financial markets. For Uzbekistan, a key advantage may lie in combining a growing economy, banking sector modernization, and expanding international payment connections. However, real competitiveness will be determined not by the number of digital products, but by the financial system's ability to provide reliable, accessible, and predictable settlements for businesses and investors,” Bruno Sergi notes.
However, the economic models of the two countries may not only compete but also complement one another.
Kazakhstan has a larger economic base, while Uzbekistan possesses a substantial domestic market and is expanding its international trade relationships.
For regional businesses, the value lies less in shifting financial operations from one country to another and more in the ability to interact seamlessly across borders.
For example, a company operating in both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan places greater importance on predictable settlements, access to foreign exchange operations, and comparable banking requirements than on either country's formal leadership in the number of fintech projects.
Therefore, the most realistic scenario appears to be the development of several interconnected financial centers with different areas of specialization.
Under this model, Uzbekistan could strengthen its position as a major market for banking and payment services supporting trade, remittances, and international business activity.
What Limits Uzbekistan's Financial Ambitions?
The main structural constraint is the continued significant role of the state in the banking sector.
As of August 1, 2026, banks with state ownership accounted for 62% of total banking system assets and 65% of loans in Uzbekistan.
A high level of state participation does not, in itself, prevent the development of international financial services.
However, it increases the importance of corporate governance quality, transparency in lending decisions, and consistent implementation of reforms.
In its June 2026 review, the IMF also emphasized the need to strengthen macrofinancial stability and continue structural transformation.
Among the risks identified were external uncertainty and the possibility of economic overheating amid strong domestic demand.
A second constraint is the uneven development of international payment infrastructure.
Even with modern digital applications, cross-border transactions remain dependent on correspondent banks, foreign exchange liquidity, sanctions compliance, and the requirements of different jurisdictions.
The third constraint is the limited comparability of available data.
Public statistics make it possible to assess trade volumes, banking assets, and remittance flows, but they do not provide a complete picture of the actual speed and cost of international payments between Central Asian countries.
Without such data, it is not possible to convincingly claim that regional financial integration has already reduced business costs.
What Will Determine Uzbekistan's Position Over the Next Five Years?
Looking ahead to 2027–2031, the further strengthening of Uzbekistan's regional role will depend less on the number of announced international initiatives and more on their practical outcomes.
The first criterion is the development of operational cross-border payment channels.
Key indicators will include the number of connected countries and banks, transaction volumes, transfer costs, and the share of successfully completed payments.
The second criterion is the expansion of international trade finance.
Relevant indicators include the volume of confirmed letters of credit, guarantees, credit facilities, and the actual use of these instruments by businesses.
The third criterion is the transformation of the banking sector's structure.
Reducing the concentration of state-owned assets, strengthening private banks, and improving governance standards could create additional conditions for competition and international cooperation.
The fourth criterion is the implementation of the national fintech strategy.
Its results should be measured by services actually launched, payment system interoperability, and the adoption of digital financial instruments rather than the number of agreements signed.
The baseline scenario assumes the gradual expansion of international payment integrations while differences in national regulatory frameworks persist.
A more favorable scenario could emerge if Uzbekistan and neighboring countries manage to harmonize technical standards, ensure the reliable operation of cross-border payment channels, and improve business access to international financing.
A negative scenario would involve tighter external financial restrictions, delays in banking reforms, and a situation in which numerous technological agreements fail to translate into services that meet real market demand.
These are analytical scenarios, not official forecasts assigning probabilities to their realization.